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RSLC REDMAP Rundown – July 27th, 2010

REDMAP

Welcome to this week’s edition of REDMAP Rundown, a synopsis of redistricting news brought to you by the RSLC’s REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP).  This weekly update gives you the latest on what those in the Beltway, and across the country, are saying about the impending reapportionment and redistricting process.

In this week’s REDMAP Rundown: Massive Dem losses predicted, Spotlighting state races, redistricting is a “high-stakes” war, Sweeping change in Pennsylvania, Delaware House trends, Koch’s enemies, “Communities of Interest,” Cali narrows and Jersey’s 800-pound Gorilla.

Real Clear Politics’ Sean Trende writes, “Four months out from Election Day, the Democrats will probably lose the House and are in some danger of losing the Senate. But losing those legislative bodies would not be the most damaging aspect of the impending tsunami heading toward the Democratic Party. … These losses are likely to be massive, and illustrate the size of the impending voter revolt. And they could not come at a worse time. Combined with likely statehouse gains, they threaten to put Republicans in charge of redistricting for the first time in several generations, and will potentially provide the GOP with a top-tier crop of Presidential hopefuls in the future.”

The inaugural “State Race Spotlight” for Townhall.com begins, “Every decade the U.S. Congress plays musical chairs to the tune of the Census population counts – only in this re-apportionment version, the number of chairs stays the same, they just move to different states. By the time the counting (but not the arguing) is done in 2011, Texas looks to gain at least 3 additional seats in its Congressional delegation, thanks to strong population growth that has held up even as the recession has slowed growth in other formerly booming states. … In the Texas statehouse, the stakes are even higher, as the district boundaries will shift to reflect the growth at the suburban edges of Texas’ major cities. This will not be a quiet debate, as several rural incumbents could find themselves in a showdown with another incumbent for a consolidated district, while incumbents in the booming areas could find themselves living outside of their districts.”

“National party leaders are raising hundreds of millions for a high-stakes redistricting war that will define the political playing field for the next decade,” National Journal reports.  Voters typically ignore redistricting, the complex, often secretive process of redrawing the legislative and congressional district lines after the decennial census. But this year, redistricting is almost hot. GOP leaders historically have relied on the Republican National Committee to lead the redistricting effort. But this year they’re branching out, tapping a network of new 501(c)4 and 527 organizations for fundraising and technical help. These include the Republican State Leadership Committee, a 527 headed by Ed Gillespie, former counselor to President George W. Bush.”

“If Republicans pick up just three seats in the 203-member Pennsylvania House of Representatives in the November election, it could bring sweeping policy changes to a state that can’t seem to make up its mind whether it wants to be blue or red,” reports The Associated Press. “The campaign news this summer has focused on the two high-profile races for governor and U.S. Senate, but the outcome of legislative races could largely determine what the state does about its multibillion-dollar budget shortfall, the funding crisis for public-sector pensions and redistricting — not to mention the thousands of bills lawmakers will introduce over the coming two-year session.”

“This is about trying to take back the majority in the state House of Representatives,” reports Delaware’s Dover Post.  “The 2010 election could be the last one for a long time to give the Republicans a chance to reclaim the House. The next session of the General Assembly is responsible for redistricting — the redrawing of the districts every 10 years to keep them equal in population — and Democratic majorities in both chambers could map with premeditated malice and get away with it. … Enough seats are in play for the Republicans conceivably to make a run at the majority.”

“About 110 people, including Democratic leaders of the state Senate and Assembly, are on the ‘Enemies of Reform’ list released Thursday by New York Uprising, a non-partisan coalition led by former New York City Mayor Ed Koch.  The group received signed pledges from 240 candidates who agreed to work for non-partisan, independent redistricting, an independent budget office and additional improvements to the budget process, and stronger ethics laws.  All 29 Senate Republicans are on board, even those who are not running for re-election.”

“Bravo Corpus Christi-area residents,” the Corpus Christi Caller editorializes, “for a healthy turnout at Wednesday’s state hearing on redistricting. The City Council chambers seating was packed. The consensus concept that emerged from the comments was that state House, Senate and congressional districts should encompass ‘communities of interest.’”

The Sacramento Bee reports, “The pool of potential members for the state’s legislative redistricting commission has been narrowed to 120 applicants, who will undergo personal interviews.  An ‘applicant review panel’ convened by the state auditor’s office — as decreed by Proposition 11, passed by voters in 2008 — winnowed the pool down to 40 Democrats, 40 Republicans and 40 independents who appear to roughly mirror the cultural makeup of the state’s population.”

Frank Hannon opines, “The minute the Census of 2010 becomes official and is on the Internet, you can bet 133 New Jersey residents will be analyzing the results. Included in the group will be 13 sitting congressmen and 120 New Jersey legislators.  With the census comes mandatory redistricting of both congressional and state legislative districts. There is not much public interest in the once-every-decade process but to New Jersey congressmen, state senators, and assembly members it is the 800-pound gorilla that can make or break them.”

The RSLC is the only national organization whose mission is to elect down ballot state-level Republican office-holders.  To sign up for the REDMAP Rundown, or for more information or media inquiries, please contact Adam Temple at 571.480.4891.



REDMAP Rundown – June 4th, 2010

Cross posted on REDistrictingMAjorityProject.com

Welcome to this week’s edition of REDMAP Rundown, a synopsis of redistricting news brought to you by the RSLC’s REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP). This weekly update gives you the latest on what those in the beltway, and across the country, are saying about the impending reapportionment and redistricting process.

In this week’s REDMAP Rundown: Florida, civics and headaches; Texas involves more than politics; Ohio takes the constitutional route; Tuscaloosa wants some representation and New York’s commission idea presents problems

The Florida Times-Union speculates that “a civics lesson in Scott Fortune’s congressional run” is ahead.  “The Beaches lawyer is planning to release a self-made documentary next week questioning the political border-drawing process that’s kept his opponent, U.S. Rep. Corrine Brown, in a veritable fortress of voter demographics for the past 18 years.”

“Three ballot questions. Two lawsuits (and counting). One serious headache for voters,” so says the Tampa Tribune.  “Redistricting, the subject of three constitutional amendments headed for the November election ballot, is never a pretty process.  The next round of redistricting won’t start until late 2011. But with competing groups vying to change the rules of the game, it is already messier than usual.”

Ben Philpott of KUT News and the Texas Tribune reports, “Redistricting is a highly partisan exercise, but there’s likely to be more at work than mere politics in 2011. Shifts in the state’s population and demographics will play a large part in shaping where new congressional and legislative boundaries are set.”  Listen to audio of Ben HERE.

“The Ohio Senate this week is considering a measure recently passed in the House that would change the way the state’s legislative districts are drawn every 10 years,” according to the Marietta Times.  “The Senate passed its own version of a redistricting plan last year. If a compromise version can pass both chambers by Aug. 4, a constitutional amendment will appear on the November ballot. Voters must approve any change in the redistricting process since it’s a change to the state’s constitution.”

In Alabama, The Tuscaloosa News opines, “We can only hope the new Alabama Legislature that is also being elected this year will see fit to redraw districts so that someone from Tuscaloosa County, the fifth largest in the state, will have a fighting chance at election in the future.”

The Albany Times Union’s Peter G. Pollak writes, “After years of bashing the state Legislature for drawing districts that favor incumbents, the good government groups calling for reform received a boost when all of the major 2010 gubernatorial candidates endorsed the concept of an independent redistricting commission … Two problems stand in the way of achieving this kind of redistricting.  First, the state constitution requires the job to be done by the Legislature and there’s not enough time for a constitutional amendment to change things for this go-around. Thus, the Legislature will have the final say no matter how insulated a commission is created. Second, the reformers’ bills embody conflicting goals: Having districts that are both contiguous and compact makes it difficult not to break up existing political boundaries.  Another way to put it is there is a conflict between process goals and outcomes.”

The RSLC is the only national organization whose mission is to elect down ballot state-level Republican office-holders. For more information or media inquiries, please contact Adam Temple at 571.480.4891. If you would like to receive this report in an email, please click here


RSLC REDMAP Rundown – May 28, 2010

Cross posted on REDistrictingMAjorityProject.com

Welcome to this week’s edition of REDMAP Rundown, a synopsis of redistricting news brought to you by the RSLC’s REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP).  This weekly update gives you the latest on what those in the beltway, and across the country, are saying about the impending reapportionment and redistricting process.

In this week’s REDMAP Rundown: what they should be worrying about, bashing in the Bayou, Florida goes to court, Oklahoma looks good for the GOP, Ohio tries to involve citizens and Iowa needs more citizens.

The Washington Examiner’s David Freddoso writes, “In the run-up to November, everybody is wondering whether Republicans can retake the House of Representatives this year. They should really be wondering whether the GOP can take back the Indiana House of Representatives and the New York state Senate.  U.S. House races will determine who controls Congress until 2012, but state-level races for legislature and governor this fall could determine who controls Congress through 2022. Next year, states will redraw their legislative and congressional district lines based on the results of the U.S. census. And in most states, the party in power gets to draw the map to its own advantage.  This year, it’s generally agreed that Republicans will make gains. If they win a few key, competitive races, their control over redistricting could increase dramatically. And if Democrats lose a few key races, their control could diminish just as dramatically.”


The Daily Advertiser in Lafayette, Louisiana opines, “Although the upcoming redistricting session for lawmakers is still months away in early 2011, redistricting is already rankling legislators now, and the arguments are spilling out into the current regular session.  The Legislature decides lines for its own seats and the state’s U.S. House seats, among other elected districts. This time is expected to be particularly contentious, because of post-Hurricane Katrina population shifts and because Louisiana is predicted to lose one of its seven congressional seats.  ‘It’s going to be the most agonizing, difficult process we’re going to go through for the remainder of the term, or at least tied up there with the budget,’ said House Speaker Jim Tucker.”


“Two members of Congress want a court to remove a citizen initiative on congressional redistricting from Florida’s Nov. 2 ballot.  U.S. Reps. Corrine Brown, D-Jacksonville, and Mario Diaz-Balart, R-Miami, announced Tuesday that they had filed the case in state Circuit Court in Tallahassee,” the Associated Press reports.  “They argue the ballot summary for Amendment 6 is deceptive although it already has been cleared by the Florida Supreme Court.”


Jim Geraghty of NRO gets “Pat McFerron, director of survey research at Cole Hargrave Snodgrass and Associates, and the ‘Sooner Survey’ offer[ing] these thoughts: ‘While there are still months to go, it is very clear that 2010 should be a Republican year in Oklahoma. With redistricting just around the corner, and the fact that this shift appears to be a fundamental shift along ideological lines as opposed to being based on personalities, one is left to ponder if there is a longterm future for the Democratic Party in Oklahoma other than to fill the minority party role of watchdog, and only winning significant races in the case of scandal or other unusual circumstances. Given the data we have today, that seems the most likely outcome.’”


“A much-discussed proposal to allow public input into the politically charged redistricting process was approved by an Ohio House committee yesterday, this time with very little discussion,” according to the Columbus Dispatch.  “House Joint Resolution 15, a plan to revamp how state legislative districts are drawn, was approved on a 7-6 party-line vote by the House Elections and Ethics Committee.”


“Some 2010 Census advertisements invite people to ‘paint a new portrait of America.’  For Iowa, some of that ‘painting’ could be redrawing its U.S. congressional districts — minus one.  Today, Iowa has five districts … which covers 32 counties in western Iowa.  But political forecasters are suggesting the census — which uses population numbers to divvy up the 435 U.S. Congress seats among the states — is going to mean one less seat for Iowa.”

The RSLC is the only national organization whose mission is to elect down ballot state-level Republican office-holders. For more information or media inquiries, please contact Adam Temple at 571.480.4891. If you would like to receive this report in an email, please click here


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