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New Jersey Polls Shift for Republicans

History of State Legislature Control Question among odd year Quinnipiac University Polls 2001-2009
www.quinnipiac.edu

In New Jersey we have literally seen a once in a decade shift in public opinion. Likely voters now tell QU pollsters that they would prefer a Republican controlled General Assembly by a 6 point margin, the first advantage for Republicans this decade.

The Republican ADVANTAGE shown in the the most recent 2009 survey(s) are even more interesting when contrasted with the steady Republican DISADVANTAGE tracked from 2001 to 2007 that has kept the party in the minority.

The national political environment, the unpopularity of the sitting Democrat Governor along with the nations highest property tax burden are all factors that may be driving public opinion towards the Republicans. As shown in the data below Republicans have never done better with Independent voters and now hold a significant 11 point advantage among that group heading in to the November election.

New Jersey Republicans need to pick up 4 districts (8 seats) to tie the chamber and for the first time in a decade they have the wind at their back.

NJpoll
 

July 3, 2001

10. Which party would you like to see control the New Jersey State legislature after the elections in November the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?

Total

Republican

Democrat

Independent

Men

Women

Democratic Party

46%

5%

92%

40%

42%

49%

Republican Party

38

86

4

30

44

33

DK/NA

16

10

4

30

14

18

 

September 24, 2003

17. Which party would you like to see control the New Jersey State Legislature after the elections in November – the Democratic Party or Republican Party?

Total

Republican

Democrat

Independent

Men

Women

Household

Democratic Party

48%

5%

92%

42%

44%

52%

52%

Republican Party

37

89

5

29

43

33

31

DK/NA

14

6

3

29

13

15

17

Philly…

Urban

SubUrbn

ExUrbn

Land

Shore

Democratic Party

66%

50%

32%

46%

44%

Republican Party

20

36

52

41

40

DK/NA

13

14

16

13

15

 

June 15, 2005

10. Which party would you like to see control the New Jersey State Legislature after the elections in November — the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?

Total

Republican

Democrat

Independent

Men

Women

Democratic Party

48%

7%

89%

33%

43%

52%

Republican Party

39

89

4

41

45

34

DK/NA

13

4

6

26

12

14

September 25, 2007

43. As you may know, this November, elections for all 120 seats of the New Jersey Legislature will be held. This includes both the Senate and the Assembly. Which party would you like to see control the state legislature after the November elections – the Republican party or the Democratic party?

Total

Republican

Democrat

Independent

Men

Women

Democratic Party

38%

89%

2%

35%

40%

36%

Republican Party

48

5

94

41

45

51

DK/NA

14

6

4

24

15

13

Philly…

Urban

SubUrbn

ExUrbn

Land

Shore

Democratic Party

28%

38%

45%

31%

45%

Republican Party

60

48

47

54

35

DK/NA

12

15

8

16

19

 

September 1, 2009

31. Which party would you like to see control the New Jersey State Legislature after the elections in November – the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?

LIKELY VOTERS…

Total

Republican

Democrat

Independent

Men

Women

Democratic Party

40%

2%

85%

34%

36%

45%

Republican Party

46

94

9

45

53

40

DK/NA

13

4

7

21

11

16

Philly…

Urban

SubUrbn

ExUrbn

Land

Shore

Democratic Party

65%

43%

26%

44%

24%

Republican Party

25

41

64

47

57

DK/NA

10

16

10

9

20

TREND: Which party would you like to see control the New Jersey State Legislature after the elections in November – the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?

LIKELY VOTERS…

September 1, 2009

August 11, 2009

July 14, 2009

Democratic Party

40%

43%

45%

Republican Party

46

45

43

DK/NA

13

12

11

1 Comment

  1. Comments  Analysis of New Jersey Assembly ballot trending towards Republicans « DC Vaquero’s Blog   |  Thursday, 03 September 2009 at 3:42 pm

    […] Cross posted on the RSLC State News Shot […]

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