Today is Thursday, 28th March 2024

Governing Magazine’s New AG Race Rankings: Dems Remain on the Defensive

From Louis Jacobson at Governing:

The outlook for the 2011-2012 state attorney general races has changed only modestly in the nine months since we last analyzed them. Our ratings have shifted slightly, but six of the 13 races are still competitive.

Currently, the national balance is split evenly: 25 Democrats to 25 Republicans, down from a 32-18 Democratic lead prior to last year’s election. The rapid erosion of Democratic control of state AG offices is an ominous development for the party, since it robs the party of a meaty policy office and a key job for building an in-state farm team for higher office.

For the 2011-2012 cycle, we rate four contests as tossups — two of them Democratic-held Montana and West Virginia, and two of them Republican-held Washington state and Pennsylvania. Two other AG seats, all held by Democrats, are rated lean Democratic (Kentucky and Missouri).

Meanwhile, seven contests in 2011-2012 look strong for the incumbent party — Utah, Indiana and Louisiana for the Republicans, and Mississippi, North Carolina, Oregon and Vermont for the Democrats.

Of these, two were competitive when we last analyzed them. But with Buddy Caldwell’s party switch from Democrat to Republican in Louisiana, the race is now safe for Republicans. And in Mississippi, the GOP opponent to long-serving Democratic AG Jim Hood has yet to demonstrate a strong likelihood of an upset.

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